The core numbers
| Metric | What it tells you |
|---|---|
| Win rate | Share of closed trades that made money |
| Average win / average loss | Typical size of a winning and a losing trade |
| Risk-to-reward | Average win divided by average loss |
| Expectancy | What an average trade is worth, over many trades |
| Profit factor | Gross profit divided by gross loss |
| Maximum drawdown | The deepest fall from a peak in equity |
Expectancy
Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss)
Positive expectancy means that, over enough trades, the approach has made money on average. Negative expectancy means it has lost, however good individual trades felt.
| Illustrative trader | A | B |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 70% | 40% |
| Average win | ₹400 | ₹900 |
| Average loss | ₹1,100 | ₹450 |
| Expectancy per trade | −₹50 | +₹90 |
Trader A wins most of the time and still loses money, because the losses are much larger than the wins. Trader B loses more often and comes out ahead. Win rate on its own tells you very little.
How the IndieFunded Score uses these
The IndieFunded Score in your dashboard is a 0–100 summary built from four areas: consistency across days, risk discipline against your loss allowance, risk-to-reward, and win rate. Risk-to-reward is weighted so that a high win rate cannot hide oversized losses.
The score is informational. It helps you see how you trade; it is not a rule and it does not decide whether you pass.
Reviewing your journal
- 1Wait for a meaningful sample. Twenty trades says far more than five.
- 2Compare average loss with your planned risk per trade. If losses are larger, stops are being moved or ignored.
- 3Look for your worst days. Were they one bad trade, or many trades after an early loss?
- 4Change one thing at a time, then measure again.
Past results are not a forecast